Egypt - The tension before the election.

Egypt is preparing for its first presidential elections since the fall of Mubarak’s regime. Some high-ranking presidential candidates were excluded. The presidential campaign began, without identifying the powers of the future president.
Political uncertainty and its concomitant instability are likely to continue, at least until the transfer of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to an elected government takes place.
As a consequence, downward pressure on foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue. Reserves now cover less than three months of imports of goods and services due to lower tourism revenues and foreign direct
investment in the country, and a withdrawal of portfolio investment. The restoration of confidence in the economy could start the loan agreement with the IMF of USD 3.2 billion. However, given the currently tense political atmosphere, a domestic political consensus on such an agreement seems unlikely before a new President takes office.

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