Executive summary:
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The lasting political stalemate will remain until the 2014 general elections, affecting India’s economic outlook.
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Communal violence, Maoist insurgency and unresolved conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir constitute India’s main security risks.
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India’s weakened economic momentum partly results from cyclical factors and external shocks, namely the global slowdown, high inflation – particularly oil prices – and the eurozone crisis. But a deteriorated business environment and lack of structural reform further penalize the economy and threaten growth potential.
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Poor public finances compel the general government to fiscal consolidation, depriving it from a major policy tool.
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